Something to feel good about in 2050

Something to feel good about in 2050, while we cant afford a kg of onions in 2010 🙂

how China, India and Brazil will overtake the West by 2050
GDP projections to 2050: how the rankings change.

Read the complete article on “how China, India and Brazil will overtake the West by 2050” in Guardian datablog.

One more interesting presentation on all 200 countries.

Credits : Hans Rosling’s 200 Countries, 200 Years, 4 Minutes – The Joy of Stats – BBC Four

India vs China – its On!

Looks like West is all ready with popcorn and Coke for next big action movie, “India vs China”. Its is now speculated that world politics of next century will be shaped by the progress and the relationship between these two countries. The Economist is the latest one to analyse the “Contest of the century” to compare the advantages and shortcomings if these two Asian rivals fight each other taking border dispute as a reason.


Contest of the century

It reads

Why shouldn’t more be asked from a place that, as well as being the world’s most-populous country, is already its biggest exporter, its biggest car market, its biggest carbon-emitter and its biggest consumer of energy (a rank China itself, typically, contests)? As for changing the balance of power, the People’s Liberation Army’s steady upgrading of its technological capacity, its building of a blue-water navy and its fast-developing skills in outer space and cyberspace do not yet threaten American supremacy

India’s long-term prospects now look stronger. While China is about to see its working-age population shrink, India is enjoying the sort of bulge in manpower which brought sustained booms elsewhere in Asia. It is no longer inconceivable that its growth could outpace China’s for a considerable time. It has the advantage of democracy—at least as a pressure valve for discontent. And India’s army is, in numbers, second only to China’s and America’s: it has 100,000 soldiers in disputed Arunachal Pradesh (twice as many as America will soon have in Iraq). And because India does not threaten the West, it has powerful friends both on its own merits and as a counterweight to China.

This totally totally looks like a pre-conflict analysis.

Even for an unfortunate (yet stupid ) reason it happens, both the countries are not ready a fight, especially not India.

All above are based on aggregate GDP and military power, which obviously are large number for these states. but if you have a look few other factors(infographics), both India and China far behind.  Hope these priorities are understood before any steps taken to show power.

India Vs China
India Vs China

History of GDP

“China and India were the biggest economies in the world for almost all of the past 2000 years!”

I have heard about this before, heard the stories of Indian empires selling Gems in heaps, on footpath! One of them, (Vijayanagara Empire) had merchants bartering diamonds (dug in Golconda) with rice and wheat! Each one of those stones were described to be costing big fortunes, in the west. Looks like all true now, not in exact way.

I dint believe this in the beginning, hard to believe, isn’t it? How can such a country, just in 200 years, can come to this state ? All the laurels sung seemed exaggerations to me. As I explained earlier India is country of poets and philosophers, not historians and accountants. It’s hard to distinguish between history and poem.

Anyways, I found this cool info graphics, which paints world DGPs spread across two millenniums. I am searching for more statistical information on this, for personal interest, watch this space.

History of GDP
History of GDP

Credit for this compilation goes to Angus Maddison

A patriots calculation

Disclaimer: This post is tagged in “humor “category.

Business today (Feb 11) had one article about “why you to stop pulling your wallet for everything”. That includes movies, food, cigarettes etc. To make the article more attractive some statistics were there too. They were highly optimistic calculations, for example if you don’t eat pizza for a year how much you’ll end up saving after 30 years. Article was completely high hopes for me and my friends. Majorly because of the reason we are surviving this phase life solely on “strict” junk food.

Let’s not analyze all of them. Take their case study on cigarette.

If you are smoking a packet of cigarette, say classic milds

Cost per day ————————————— 80

Cost per year – ———————————29200

If you invest the same

liqid fund (say interest rate of 5% pa) —- 19, 40,014

Provident fund (interest rate of 8% pa) — 33, 07,870

BSE sensex (assume 18% pa) – ——– 2, 30, 95,681

Stock portfolio (with 20% pa) — ——-3, 45, 10,941

Let’s go a patriot ways.

In that the vendor of cigarette gets a commission of 10 % of total cost. You would not buy it with the same vendor for thirty years. Still for calculation lets assume you do. Also you are the only one who pull wallet for everything, not him. He is a human as you, and wish to gain lot of money through BSE sensex. He invests his (say) 30% of this particular income, and gains 1,385,741. (Same calculation as above, I dint invent math…!). Rest 70 % of his income goes for his wife’s kitty parties, school donation for his son, make up kit for his daughter etc. That would add up to 3,333,395. See, you are the reason for making four dreams coming true at least partially.

Next comes the ITC. Indian Tobacco Company is said to be one of the greatest enterprise ever established in India. One of my friends says, they used to halt their road trip and salute whenever an ITC comes on the road. 70 % of your investment (that would be purchase of cigarette here) will go to ITC. It employs thousands of workers for production, spends millions of rupees on tobacco, paper, advertisement etc. So imagine hoe may jobs will be created, just by you. So they get 20440 of your 30 years purchase. They too have intelligent directors and them to will invest, say 30 % of what you gave them. BSE sensex shall give them 48, 50,093 by end of 30 years. Continue reading “A patriots calculation”